AgriPulse

As the spring growth slowly emerges, the majority of our primary sector remains in good shape. There are some clouds on the horizon with regard to tariffs and market protectionism responses, and time will tell how this plays out. On the farm front, commodity prices remain strong, interest rates are trending downwards, inflation is (mostly) under control, and the grass is growing.

So all is well on the farm? Our recent dairy farm survey results highlight good cash returns and positivity for the year ahead. However, this positivity is masking a few underlying concerns that have not gone away:

• The modest returns on assets (3-5%) for the ‘average’ farmer, compared to the top 20% who are achieving returns of 9% upwards.
• A concerning decline in the rate of productivity growth in our primary sectors. If the primary sector was to achieve the government target of export double from $60bn to $120bn, are we going to do this through doubling the value of our products or doubling the quantity? Each option comes with its own set of challenges.
• Linked with the above point, recent information suggests we are not harvesting any additional pasture on farms, and in fact may be harvesting less. The amount of pasture harvested on farms has a strong correlation with profitability, so how do we resolve this?
• There is a risk that some of the current ‘pauses’ on environmental regulation create inertia for change or become accepted as the status quo position.
• New Zealand’s aging labour force is creating even more competition for good labour, and how is the primary sector going to respond?

The point here is not to cast a downer on the current good times, rather a call to action to ensure we don’t waste the current economic opportunity. How do we reinvest in people, technology and infrastructure to lift our overall performance? Imagine if the ‘average’ was performing at the level of the top 20%. In some cases this might come through land use change or significant farm policy changes. In other cases it can be as simple as focusing on tightening performance of the existing operation. For example, at a dairy payout of $10/kgMS and farm working costs of $6.50/kgMS, achieving a 5% lift in milk production, combined with a 5% decrease in farm costs, results in a 24% lift in farm profit. Now is the time to sharpen our businesses to set them up for long term prosperity.

James Allen, AgFirst

The 2024/25 dairy season rounded out well, with May production up 8% compared to the same time last year, and 2025/26 kicked off strongly with an 18% increase for June. A mild winter and good pasture growth lends July to a similar trend. These increases are likely due to lower interest rates and a strong milk price affording farmers the opportunity to milk on and benefit financially from those decisions.

Most regions have started the season under positive conditions, with warmer than average temperatures promoting grass growth and providing sound feed positions. The first half of July offered wet weather, certainly impacting on the conditions underfoot, whilst the latter half of the month arrived several frosts firming up ground conditions.

The Fonterra milk price forecast has afforded a good start to the season, holding at $10/kgMS. Following the announcement there were several declines in the Global Dairy Trade auctions, however the last trade showed some uplift (+1.1%). Thus far there has been no cause for concern, with most economists forecasting positive milk pricing for the year to come and strong economic performances.

Positive livestock prices have driven many to consider rearing additional calves, however there are some concerns that the prices will be driven down when large numbers of these weaner calves enter the market later in the season.

Input costs continue to increase, mainly due to global supply constraints, export restrictions, and increasing purchase costs for consumables. There are still uncertainties regarding tariffs and the impacts that announcements may have on New Zealand’s abilities to trade and export. Whilst we won’t be shut out, experts are saying that our decisions on trading partners will play an important role in our export futures long term.

Fonterra have announced changes to the Co-Operative Difference scheme and have been taking a proactive approach to ensure suppliers are aware and understand the requirements. The updates cover incentives to improve on farm efficiencies and emissions status, worth around $1500 per farm this season, to approximately 6000 of Fonterra’s suppliers. The scheme now takes into account carbon removals, and rewards farmers for efficient use of nitrogen fertilisers, maximising homegrown feed and improving milk production per unit of input.

Overall farmers are optimistic and behaviours show positive outlook. Spending has reflected the result of last years increased productivity and strong milk price. Farmers focussed on catching up on repairs and maintenance, and capital requirements that had gone amiss in the previous tighter financial years, and also going into debt reduction. Notably there has been increased interest in discretionary items, like cow wearables over the past 6 months.

 Lycinda Lett, AgFirst

In stark contrast to this time last year, the outlook for sheep and beef is extremely positive, driven by strong market prices. Combined with dairy, the agricultural sector is well-positioned to help lift the New Zealand’s economy out of the doldrums with higher export earnings leading to a boost in regional economies and the subsequent flow on effect.

We would expect expenditure on farms to increase on key items like fertiliser, fencing and other infrastructure projects. Particularly, in fertiliser which has been compromised over the last 2 to 3 years.
Beef prices have risen by nearly $2.00/kg (+22%) compared to this time last year, with prime stock currently sitting around to $8.30-8.50/kg. More upside is expected considering prices would traditionally peak in the spring.

Winter lamb prices are over $3.00/kg (+44%) better year-on-year, now at $9.80/kg. These prices are also expected to peak in spring and while we anticipate the usual easing back of prices through the summer- our main selling period for livestock on farms – the outlook is still very positive for the sheep and beef sector.

Wool prices have increased again compared to last year, sparking renewed interest in wool but there is still a long way to go to inspire confidence in the long term.

Banks continue to be supportive of farmers. With interest rates at a manageable level, those that have been on fixed term rates have been able to take advantage of these lower rates or approaching a stage where they can refix at the lower rates.

Being an optimist or maybe a realist you would say that this is a new price reset for sheep and beef.
Just a word of caution, we are in more volatile times both with the weather and the markets added to this we have the Trump factor.

Rob Hayes, AgFirst

The Nelson Tasman region has sustained multiple instances of extreme weather events at the end of June and into July, resulting in the declaration of a medium scale adverse event being declared. A range of impact was experienced by growers across the region, due to flooding, silt, debris and wind damage.

Generally, there was no major damaged sustained by pipfruit, kiwifruit and grapes across the Waimea Plains, however vegetable growers on the Waimea Plains have been affected by crop loss. Some orchards in areas such as Brooklyn, Riwaka, Mouteka valley and Moutere valleys have experienced silt deposits, with removal ongoing. However as the timing occurred while the trees were dormant, growers have been able to respond and begin clean up prior to budbreak.

As a result of the multiple rain events the water tables are high, with heavier soil types remaining waterlogged. In addition, the damage to river banks, roads and infrastructure will be a focus. It is also very important to note the mental toll the repeated flood events has taken on both horticultural growers, as well as the wider community in the region.

For growers on the Heretaunga Plains in Hastings, the upcoming TANK Water permit process changes have been put on hold until there is an Environment Court decision on the TANK plan change issues. This is likely to be 12-18 months away, following the completion of Environment Court hearings. Horticultural growers are anxiously watching this space, to see what it means for current and new consented water volumes.

Seasonal timings are currently tracking to be average when considering winter chill units. Accumulated chill units are only slightly above the long term average and down from the excellent winter chill seen last winter across the growing regions. In Hawke’s Bay’s Esk Valley, the earliest stone fruit blocks have started to flower, so growers are on standby for frost fighting, as the new season commences.

For the pipfruit industry this winter, new blocks generally have not been greenfield plantings. Instead, where planting has occurred, the block is a replacement of diseased trees, or replacing older style plantings of unprofitable varieties. Pipfruit growers are currently in a consolidation or renewal stage of the orcharding cycle as opposed to a growth stage, and redevelopment decisions being driven out of business need to remove unprofitable blocks.

Sarah McArley, AgFirst

With confidence gradually returning to the sector thanks to global tailwinds and commodity prices ticking upward, agrimarketers have an opportunity to shift gears. While those commodity gains haven’t yet fully translated into on-farm cash, the outlook is brighter than it’s been in some time. And that makes this moment a critical one for brands to reconnect, reset and refocus their activity. Farmers are watching and planning and the brands that show up now will be the ones best placed to win when budgets start to open.

Build desire before the chequebook opens
Although the money may not yet be flowing, farmers are already thinking about where it will go when it does. That makes this a golden window to build brand desire – to show customers who you are, what you stand for and why you’re worth remembering. This isn’t just about awareness; it’s about setting the emotional and rational groundwork for purchase decisions that may be months away.

Brand campaigns with strong storytelling elements, especially those that lean into themes of innovation, resilience and future-focus, will help your brand occupy a more meaningful place in the customer’s mind. This is also the time to arm your teams with tools that support long-lead conversations. From educational content and ROI calculators to deeper resources that support smart decision-making.

Act like it’s spring… because it is
Spring is a natural time of momentum in agriculture. Plans are being made, purchases considered and energy levels rising. Your marketing should mirror this optimism. Campaigns launched now should speak directly to the ambitions of your customers, helping them plan for a more productive season, making it easy to act on what’s needed and reflecting the mood of cautious optimism. Visually, your marketing should feel refreshed and active.

Tactically, it’s a great time to show up where people are already paying attention. From field days and events to agrimedia and digital channels that support seasonal decisions. Being present, visible and valuable right now sends a strong message: we’re here, we understand your world and we’re backing you to succeed.

Brand strength is a growth multiplier
History shows that in any sector, the brands that maintain their presence during quieter times are the ones that grow fastest when the market lifts. Now is the time to reinforce your brand’s mental availability. That’s the ease with which customers remember you when they’re ready to buy.

Mental availability comes from consistent messaging, relevant content and a blend of both always-on activity and sharp, seasonal campaigns. In this environment, credibility matters too. Look for ways to amplify trusted voices whether that’s satisfied customers, farmer advocates or industry experts. These third-party endorsements help build trust and authority at a time when farmers are carefully evaluating their options.

Finally, use this time to measure and learn. By tracking brand awareness, engagement and preference now, you’ll have a clear sense of what’s working and where you need to focus as the market turns more decisively in your favour.

Mindset and momentum: how to harness the opportunity
Agrimarketers have a real chance to lead right now but doing so requires the right mindset and meaningful action. That means thinking long-term even while acting in the short term. It means leaning into optimism, not waiting for every signal to turn green. And it means showing up with relevance, not just reach.

This moment calls for marketers who are proactive, confident and close to their customers. Those who think like growth drivers (not just campaign managers) and act with purpose and pace. The sector is on the move again. The question is: will your brand be ready to move with it?

Kurt Sandtmann, Tracta

AgFirst, New Zealand’s largest independent agribusiness consultancy, is proud to mark its 30th anniversary in 2025 — celebrating three decades of trusted advice, practical solutions, and innovative thinking that continue to shape the country’s primary industries.

Formed in 1995 by 14 consultants with a shared vision of independence and practicality, AgFirst has grown into a nationwide network of over 100 specialists. Its expertise spans sheep and beef, dairying, engineering, horticulture, environmental management, and valuation — with many consultants bringing more than 20 years’ experience to their work.

“Our strength lies in our independence, our experience, and our commitment to helping clients succeed,” said Erica van Reenen, AgFirst Chair. “For 30 years, we’ve stood alongside farmers, agribusinesses, and industry organisations to help them navigate challenges, seize opportunities, and achieve their goals.”

From Cape Reinga to Bluff, our AgFirst team work directly with farmers and growers to improve productivity, profitability, and sustainability. Alongside client services in governance, HR, compliance, and financial planning, the team also partners with industry and government to deliver research, technical expertise, and policy support.

A hallmark of AgFirst’s story is the continuity of its leadership. Of the 14 original shareholders, nine remain active today — still working directly with clients and mentoring the next generation. Founding member Ross Wilson reflected: “Us old buggers had a vision, and 30 years later that vision is front of us – a team of dynamic, skilled, and passionate agribusiness professionals all striving towards the vision of leading a successful New Zealand primary industry. It is now time to pass the baton, and we implore the new wave of AgFirst leaders to strive to reach heights that we could only dream of being possible.”

To mark the milestone, the AgFirst team gathered in Taupō last week for their annual conference. The celebrations provided time to reflect on progress, share insights on the future of farming, and acknowledge the people who have shaped the business. Speaking at the evening function, founding member Peter Livingston said: “For the originals, AgFirst has always been more than a business — it’s been an extension of our families. We’ve shared professional successes and personal milestones, and it’s special to see the next generation coming through, with some of the originals’ children now part of the business.”

The night was a fitting tribute to the journey so far, as consultants from across the country came together to honour the contribution of both past and present team members — while also turning their sights to the future. That future is increasingly shaped by agri-technology and artificial intelligence, from precision feeding and environmental monitoring to data-driven financial modelling. AgFirst is working alongside clients to trial and adopt these tools, ensuring they deliver practical value on-farm while supporting sustainability and efficiency.

“As we celebrate 30 years, we’re focused on the future,” said James Allen, AgFirst CEO. “Our vision remains clear — to lead a smarter, sustainable, high-performing primary sector. The challenges ahead are significant, but so are the opportunities. We’re excited to continue working alongside our clients and industry partners for the next 30 years and beyond.”

Media Contact:
Roz Beaver – AgFirst
027 404 6201
roz.beaver@agfirst.co.nz

The 2025 Waikato-Bay of Plenty Dairy Financial Survey, recently released by AgFirst Waikato, offers a valuable snapshot of how dairy farms across the region are tracking financially.

Despite rising costs, the results show a sector in good shape. Favourable market conditions and efficient cost control have supported improved revenues and long-term financial sustainability. Most farms are heading into the new season with strong livestock performance and adequate feed reserves, contributing to a positive financial outlook.

Farmers are making the most of increased payouts and higher production levels, with a strong focus on planning, debt reduction, and resilience.

In his presentation Surviving vs Thriving, AgFirst CEO James Allen highlighted key drivers of performance on top-performing farms, including strong people management, milk production efficiency, smart feed use, and a focus on peak milk yield.

For more insights into what’s driving dairy success in the region, view the full report here:

2025 Waikato-Bay of Plenty Dairy Financial Survey

Across Mid-Canterbury and Hawke’s Bay, farmers are proving that cashmere goats are far more than a niche sideline — they’re a valuable complement to sheep and beef systems, delivering clear environmental, production, and financial benefits.

At Temora Downs in Mid-Canterbury and Waikereru Farm on the Maraetotara plateau near Havelock North, cashmere goats are being successfully integrated into two very different environments — from wide, cut-over tree lanes to exposed hill country at 500–600 metres elevation. Both farms are using goats to reclaim underutilised land, suppress weeds, and build high-value fibre herds that align with their broader farming goals.

These farms are part of a two-year project led by New Zealand Cashmere and AgFirst, which is evaluating the role of cashmere goats in pastoral systems. The project aims to quantify their impact on pasture composition, weed control, and livestock productivity, while also capturing the economic value of the premium fibre they produce.

Each participating farm is running 100–200 breeding does, which are shorn and bred annually. Fibre returns are already proving attractive, with cashmere currently valued at $110–$150/kg. Even first-cross goats can yield 100–250g of fibre, with production increasing significantly through improved genetics and breeding strategies.

Beyond fibre, the project is highlighting a range of wider system benefits:

• Pasture improvement, including up to 30% more clover.
• Significant weed suppression — particularly thistle, dock, and gorse.
• Reduced need for chemical spraying and mechanical topping.
• More efficient use of steep, woody, or underutilised country.
• Improved pasture structure benefiting sheep and cattle performance.

Cashmere goats are proving themselves to be a low-impact, high-return option in hill country farming systems. As the work at Temora Downs and Waikereru Farm shows, these animals offer a practical way to diversify income, lift pasture quality, and bring long-term resilience to mixed livestock operations.

Following on from the story we shared in our last edition, we are thrilled to report that Whangaroa Ngaiotonga Trust went on to win the 2025 Ahuwhenua Trophy for Māori sheep and beef farming. This is a fantastic achievement and a testament to the Trust’s vision, commitment, and hard mahi.

Congratulations also to Coby Warmington of Waima, Te Tai Tokerau, named Young Māori Farmer of the Year. AgFirst Northland consultant James Parsons has been proud to support both journeys, having worked closely with the Trust and with Coby over recent years.