AgriPulse

As the agricultural season draws to a close, it’s a good time to reflect on what has been a very positive year. Strong commodity prices have (mostly!) aligned with a favourable growing season, driving solid profitability and strengthening farm balance sheets.

We’re seeing a shift in conversations—from “how do we survive?” to “is my balance sheet working hard enough?” That’s a welcome change.

However, this improved resilience will be tested. Looking ahead to the 2026/27 season, there are early signals of a potential El Niño weather pattern, along with rising fuel and fertiliser costs. While it’s always difficult to predict too far ahead, these signals reinforce the importance of building flexibility into farm planning and being prepared for unexpected events.

Alongside strengthening resilience, now is also a good time to take a fresh look at how agritech can lift efficiency and productivity on farm and orchard. Interest in agritech investment is clearly increasing—but the key question remains: is it adding value?

AgFirst is a member of Agritech NZ. This reflects our commitment to staying at the forefront of understanding how technology can improve farm performance.

Our role is to help ensure agritech delivers practical, measurable benefits by:

• Identifying where and how agritech adds value at both farm and industry level
• Supporting successful on-farm implementation—ensuring technology is well-integrated across the whole team, rather than rushed or siloed
• Upskilling farm teams to confidently use new tools
• Understanding how different technologies connect, so we can help provide a clear, whole-farm view

The concept of a “digital twin” of a farming operation is not far away. The opportunity is to use this capability to produce more from less. For example, with fertiliser costs continuing to rise, the challenge for the year ahead is not simply to spend more—but to use better data, improved targeting, and smarter planning to achieve better outcomes from the same budget.

Set a clear approach to technology adoption on your farm, and plan carefully to ensure it delivers real value.

James Allen, AgFirst

The New Zealand dairy sector has moved through April and May on a strong but slightly cautious footing as the 2025/26 season draws to a close. Production has remained robust, with favourable autumn conditions supporting pasture growth and extending lactation in many regions. National milk output has been running ahead of last year, continuing a trend of solid production and good cow performance.

Farmgate returns also remain encouraging. Milk price forecasts are sitting near historically high levels, underpinned by strong global demand for dairy protein products, although recent softening in some Global Dairy Trade results highlights ongoing volatility. At the same time, margin pressure is emerging as a key watchpoint. Input costs—particularly feed, fertiliser and fuel—remain elevated, meaning that while the payout is strong, profitability will continue to depend on cost discipline and efficient pasture utilisation.

With the new season now underway, the focus turns to making sure the foundations laid during changeover are translating into a strong start. The first few weeks of the season often set the tone for the months ahead, and taking the time to confirm that key handover processes have been completed can make a significant difference. Taking the time to complete a thorough house and farm inspection, supported by photos and clear documentation, helps create a clear record of condition. Similarly, taking the time to jointly assess pasture cover and supplements on hand against the agreed targets—drawing on independent input where useful—builds alignment and confidence, and helps ensure everyone starts the season on the same page.

Just as importantly, ensuring new people on farm are settling in well remains a priority. Effective inductions, a strong focus on health and safety, and regular communication around roles and expectations all help build confidence and establish good working relationships. While the operational detail matters, the human side should not be overlooked – small gestures and a welcoming environment can make a real difference to how people adapt and contribute during these early weeks. A considered approach to changeover sets the tone early, supporting both performance and relationships through the season ahead.

Taken together, the strong season just completed and a well-managed start to 2026/27 provide a solid platform for the year ahead. Maintaining good communication, monitoring key indicators, and ensuring everyone remains aligned helps turn the momentum from changeover into a confident and productive start to the season.

Lycinda Lett, AgFirst

The positive tone in the sheep and beef sector has continued through the past quarter. What began as a story of stronger schedules has broadened into a more solid lift in farm income, helped by generally favourable weather, good autumn feed and a meaningful recovery in wool. Beef + Lamb New Zealand is now forecasting average farm profit before tax of $287,600 per farm for 2025-26, roughly double last season and the highest level in 50 years. Farm-gate price forecasts have also moved up, with lamb at $10.28/kgCW, mutton at $5.55/kgCW and all beef at $7.59/kgCW.

The red meat price environment remains the main driver of confidence. North American demand for lean beef is exceptionally strong, with tight US cattle supply pushing 90CL prices toward record highs and supporting manufacturing cattle schedules. On the sheep meat side, low production in Europe and the UK continues to support demand for New Zealand lamb, while market diversification away from China has helped maintain values. Lamb export values eased in March but remained well ahead of last year, and a high share of export value continues to flow back to farm gate returns.

Weather has also been doing its part. Following a wet summer, autumn has generally been warm, with enough rainfall events to refresh pastures and keep feed levels positive across much of the country. This has supported store market confidence, although it did dip when things were dry in February/March. Store lamb prices have firmed again as rainfall encouraged buyers back into the market, while a national lamb kill running more than 500,000 head behind last season highlights the extent to which supply has been pulled between store and processing channels. Beef weaner fairs have also remained above pre-season expectations, even where demand eased slightly late in the selling round. The other encouraging change is wool. After several years where wool was largely treated as a cost, strong wool prices and new demand have shifted sentiment. Industry commentary suggests the value of the strong wool clip has doubled over four years, with auction prices reaching levels that allow many farmers to cover the cost of production and, in some cases, generate a margin. The first national wool auction in Christchurch, which sold more than 9,000 bales and returned $6.6 million across two auctions, also underlined that there is active buyer interest behind the recovery.

The caution is that the next quarter may not feel as comfortable from a cost perspective. The Middle East/Iran conflict is already lifting fuel, freight and fertiliser costs. Ballance has lifted urea and SustaiN by $100/t, while global urea and sulphur prices have risen over 100% since January. Maersk has also raised some freight charges by 27%, and Beef + Lamb New Zealand notes that higher oil, freight, cartage and nitrogen fertiliser costs are a meaningful downside risk to the profit forecast. Domestic non-tradable costs, particularly rates and insurance, also remain important budget lines to watch.

Looking ahead, NIWA’s June–August outlook points to near-average temperatures across most regions, with below-normal rainfall more likely in much of the North Island and eastern South Island, while the west of the South Island is expected to see near-normal to above-normal rainfall. ENSO-neutral conditions currently prevail, but there is a high likelihood of El Niño developing through winter and strengthening later in the year. In this environment, the priority is to use the current income lift wisely: lock in resilient feed and fertiliser decisions where possible, keep a close watch on cashflow sensitivity to fuel and freight, and consider opportunities that build longer-term productivity, such as the Dairy Beef Opportunities programme and on-farm solar.

Louis Batley, AgFirst

Kiwifruit
The bulk of Ruby Red sales programme was finalised by end of April, performing strongly in market and includes the introduction of Ruby Red to new markets in Australia, Vietnam and Canada. SunGold kiwifruit is now packed, with a strong start to sales including the biggest week of sales ever with over 2 million trays sold in a single week. The later season Green kiwifruit is being packed, with sales now underway.

The recent license auction results have shown “strong confidence in industry and outlook,” with a wide range of growers continuing to invest in both Red80 and Gold3 licenses.

Pipfruit
Harvest is complete and shipping is well underway with fruit to date being well received in market. Generally, the season was good across the growing regions, however “farming the weather” was key. Notably in Nelson, following some challenging spring conditions, the good colouring weather into harvest saw high pick outs and pack outs. Returns will be known fully later this year but early indicators are building on the optimism of last season.

Growers are now in post-harvest mode, working on orchard sanitation, setting up pruning plans, R&M and budgeting for next season’s crop.

Announcement of McCains closure
The recent announcement of the closure of the McCains factory in Hastings will impact reportedly more than 100 growers of peas, beans, corn and carrots. This has created a big shock across the vegetable cropping industry, including the wider service industry including contractors, supply companies, and mechanics.

There have been several meetings between growers, council and ministers, working to understand the cropping industry production chain, the future of regional manufacturing, grower confidence, and food resilience and security.

NZ-India FTA signing
On the 27th April 2026, New Zealand and India signed a Free Trade Agreement, which has widespread benefits to the horticulture sector.

This is a major strategic achievement for New Zealand growers, with a range of reductions or removals on tariffs for exports, unlocking opportunities across the sector.

Sarah McArley & Cameron Burt, AgFirst

Planning for the next season is often where the natural cycle of agritech adoption begins, says Brendan O’Connell, Chief Executive of AgriTechNZ. As the farming year winds down and attention turns to the season ahead, farmers have a valuable opportunity to reflect on what needs to be done differently, where the next gains might come from, and what information, tools and technologies can help achieve them.

O’Connell believes this is where organisations such as AgFirst play an increasingly important role. As technology becomes more deeply embedded in farming businesses, the challenge is no longer simply identifying new tools, but understanding which technologies will create value, how they fit within the broader farm system, and how they can be successfully implemented.

According to O’Connell, agritech has moved well beyond being a collection of interesting innovations or “shiny things” that appear in conference presentations and industry headlines. Increasingly, technology is becoming part of the operating fabric of modern agriculture, helping farmers make better decisions, improve resource use and unlock the next generation of productivity gains.

“If there were easy productivity gains still sitting on the table, they would already have been captured,” says O’Connell. “The challenge now is finding the marginal improvements that compound over time.”

He draws a parallel with elite sport. New Zealand farmers have long been among the world’s most productive and innovative, but maintaining that position requires continually finding new ways to improve performance. Just as the All Blacks must work harder than ever to find their next competitive edge, farming businesses increasingly need trusted coaches and advisers to help them identify where those gains can be found.

This is why O’Connell sees AgFirst’s commitment to agritech as a positive sign of sector maturity. Rather than technology sitting alongside agriculture as a separate discipline, it is becoming part of mainstream farm advisory practice, where the focus remains firmly on performance, profitability and resilience.

“Data without knowledge is simply noise, while knowledge without the right data is often just opinion,” says O’Connell. “The real opportunity comes from combining both. Firms like AgFirst are helping farmers connect those two worlds, applying the right tools at the right time and ensuring technology contributes to outcomes that matter. That’s a strong signal that agritech is becoming part of the fabric of modern farming, rather than something that sits on the sidelines.”

AgFirst has just laid out the best market backdrop agri-marketers have had in years. Farmers and growers are confident, balance sheets are improving and the conversation has shifted from survival to growth. For agri-marketers, that is a rare alignment. Use it!

The opportunity is sharper for brands that read the segment, not just the macro. The El Niño signal AgFirst flags will hit different parts of the sector differently. East Coast farmers in particular tend to start preparing well before any weather event arrives. The strongest acquisition activity will come from brands that match their offer to where each segment sits, whether growing into the upturn, consolidating from the last cycle or preparing for the next one. The macro story and your buyer’s willingness to spend are connected but not always the same thing.

The other defining feature of the next quarter is volume. National Fieldays was on last week and the agri-media is full of promotions, launches and competitive activity. The brands that cut through in periods like this are not always the ones with the biggest budget. They are the ones that have done the upstream work to know who they plan to talk to at the event and what those buyers are receptive to right now. Dairy farmers, for example, have been flat out moving stock and people through the 1 June changeover, so brands timing their activity around that reality will land far better than those running blanket campaigns. James Hurman launched a new edition of “Future Demand” last week. It is worth a read for anyone sharpening this thinking, since his framework for splitting future demand work from current demand work applies directly to seasonal categories like agriculture.

Fieldays itself deserves a separate word. A great Fieldays is built well before and well after the four days themselves. The brands that get the most out of it treat it as a three-phase programme. Lead-in promotion in the weeks before to set the agenda for the conversations you want on the day. Considered activity during the event to convert foot traffic into real engagement. Structured follow-up afterwards to turn interest into pipeline. That discipline is what turns Fieldays from one of the most expensive marketing exercises in the calendar into one of the most valuable. Walking the event last week, I noticed a stark contrast between the brands that had done this well and the ones that had turned up blindly, hoping foot traffic alone would convert. Some of the biggest names in agriculture had expensive stands sitting empty, while smaller players were in continual conversation and converting prospects. It is not about who has the biggest stand or the biggest budget. It is about who arrived with a plan and who didn’t.

Outside of Fieldays, the bigger strategic theme for the season ahead is that agri-marketers have more growth levers available than they typically use. Many see promotion as the one they need to pull harder when growth is the goal, while product and supply also get a healthy share of attention. The bigger opportunity often sits in between. Agriculture is a relational sector, so the levers that link product to promotion usually generate the highest return per marketing dollar. Three are systematically underplayed.

1. The retail and distribution channel. The retailer or dealer who carries your product is your front-line salesforce. Investing in their understanding and advocacy generates more conversion per marketing dollar than another flight of media. It is the single biggest under-leveraged channel for most agri-brands.
2. The product and sales experience. Demos, trials, on-farm visits and technical assessments turn a curious farmer into a buyer in a relational category. They are also the experiences competitors find hardest to copy, making a well-designed sales experience a competitive moat in its own right.
3. The relationship layer with key customers and prospects. Loyalty programmes, advisory boards, hosted on-farm events and peer-to-peer networking are the work that compounds over years. Brands that build genuine relational depth here are the ones that hold the line when a competitor turns up with a promotional offer.

A final word on agritech, since AgFirst has covered it well. The category looks like it is finally crossing into the early majority, with farmers seeing tangible value on farm. Much of that value is showing up in ease, lifestyle and time back rather than pure commercial return. For marketers, that is a significant opening. Ease and quality of life are now as motivating as ROI, which makes it easier for agritech brands to land their message without funding the formal trials and case studies that prove a dollar return. If you market agritech, make sure your messaging does justice to what your product does to a farmer’s day, not just to their P&L.

Kurt Sandtmann, Tracta